Seismic activity can never be predicted with certainty, but experts at the United States Geological Survey have estimated that there is a nearly 50 percent chance that a 7.2 magnitude earthquake or larger will strike Southern California in the next 30 years.

According to USGS research, a quake of that size would shut down roadways and severely disrupt electricity, gas, water and phone services. This would force businesses to close and residents to fend for themselves for several days as emergency responders scramble to deal with the catastrophe.

For this reason, agencies like the USGS and the Governor's Office of Emergency Services are asking that residents do all they can to be prepared- to save not only themselves and their families, but their neighbors as well.

"Ninety five percent of all earthquake victims are rescued by other victims, so it's likely that in a disaster you will be rescued by your neighbors," said Dale Cox, project manager for the USGS' 2008 ShakeOut scenario.

The scenario, set to happen in mid-November, will simulate the effects of a 7.8 magnitude rupture of the San Andreas Fault in order to test the abilities of emergency responders and encourage readiness at the grassroots level.

Most Ventura County cities offer free disaster preparedness classes to empower individuals to help themselves and their neighbors.

About 78 people have taken the Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) course in Moorpark since 2005, said John Brand, senior management analyst for the city.

Since first responders who provide fire and medical services won't be able to meet the enormous demand after a major disaster, people will have to rely on each other for help to meet their immediate lifesaving and life-sustaining needs, Brand said.

"One might also expect that under these kinds of conditions, family members, fellow employees and neighbors will spontaneously try to help each other," he said.

However, helping others without training can be dangerous. Brand told of the approximately 100 individuals who died while attempting to save others in the aftermath of the 1985 Mexico City earthquake that measured 8.1 on the Richter scale.

CERT training teaches people to help neighbors without putting themselves in harm's way. Volunteers are trained in disaster preparedness, fire suppression, basic disaster medical services, light search and rescue, team organization and protection against terrorist threats.

"CERT members act as an extension of first responder services by offering immediate help to victims until professional services arrive," Brand said.

The CERT program was developed by the Los Angeles Fire Department in 1985. The Federal Emergency Management Agency now uses the program as a national model for other communities.

The Moorpark CERT program, available to those who live and work here, is sponsored by the Ventura County Fire Department and the city.

Most local cities have similar CERT programs and some even offer advanced training opportunities to complement the basic programs.

According to John Heeg, member of Thousand Oaks Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART), which provides training for CERT graduates who want to expand their skills, people should walk through their homes looking for hazards that can be secured before a disaster occurs.

"They should build up three weeks of emergency supplies, rotate the semi-perishables like canned goods and develop a plan for survival and recovery," Heeg said.

Neighborhood groups can also strategize beforehand to share resources available to them when emergencies occur, said Teresa Burton, another T.O. DART member.

The Newbury Park resident recently joined DART to help make her neighborhood more cohesive. "I wanted to be part of a group that helps the community be more prepared for disasters," she said.

Most local cities plan to participate in the November ShakeOut drill, but few have developed a detailed action plan.

In Moorpark, city officials will take part in what is called a tabletop exercise.

"We will have messages come in and respond to information that is fed to us as if it's happening in real time, but we don't actually deploy staff and resources in the real world," Brand said.

The virtual exercise will enable city employees to analyze information and make assessments, he said.

Emergency-preparedness programs, available in most cities, are open to anyone 18 or older who lives or works in Ventura County. Information about each program can be found on individual city websites.