‘Slow and steady’ is 2007 real estate prediction
By Sylvie Belmond belmond@theacorn.com

The housing market softened in 2006 but professionals aren’t anticipating a long-lasting slump. The market is only normalizing itself, experts say.

“The circumstances bringing the real estate market into balance are happening unusually quickly,” said Glen Scalise, president of the Conejo Valley Real Estate Association and brokerowner of Century 21 Rolling Oaks in Thousand Oaks.

In some area cities, oversupply is a key ingredient that has

prompted housing sales to level off, yet prices haven’t dropped significantly because east Ventura County and the Las Virgenes corridor are still desirable areas for homebuyers.

“The general trend is that sales of existing homes are down by 30 percent or more,” said Bill Watkins, executive director for the Economic Forecast Project, a research program of UC Santa Barbara that provides the community with information on economic, demographic and regional business trends.

“What’s been surprising is that the transaction drop has not translated into a large price drop,” Watkins said. Prices have remained relatively steady because the job market in the area is stable.

“We’re not experiencing a large job loss; in fact, we are seeing a job gain.”

The economy remains strong and interest rates low, said Watkins, who predicts home prices will stay relatively unchanged in 2007.

Others take a more bearish view.

John Murray, a Realtor with RE/MAX Gold Coast who sells homes throughout the area, said the housing market has definitely softened.

“I have seen prices drop from 5 to 10 percent versus earlier this year in a number of areas,” Murray said.

Because of the declining market, some homes have become worth less than what the owners paid for them. Short pays, in which lenders forgive all or a portion of a debt to make up for loss of equity due to decreasing house values, are becoming more common, Murray said. “Part of the problem has been the prevalence of interest-only loans,” he said.

But there’s hope on the horizon. Although market was slow during most of 2006, it appears to be on the rebound, said Judy Lewicki, a Realtor with Troop Realty who has been selling homes in the region for about 20 years.

“There was a little reduction in price but it’s leveling off. We have seen an actual increase in the last month,” Lewicki said.

People are starting to buy again as they realize interest rates aren’t going up. Some properties are even receiving multiple offers like in the past, Lewicki said.

While a price adjustment occurred because costs went too far up and homes became unaffordable for many buyers, there’s no reason to believe housing costs will take a dive in 2007, Lewicki said.

Developers are making some concessions to sell homes quickly, but don’t appear overly worried about future demand.

“The market goes up and down, but developers are used to this,” said Dave Bobardt, planning manager for the city of Moorpark where several large tract housing developments are underway.

Developers build in phases and sell the homes before they are constructed. If sales are sluggish, they slow down the pace of construction, Bobardt said.

Trends in local cities

As planned developments still sprout in Calabasas, Moorpark, Simi Valley and Camarillo, the cities of Thousand Oaks, Agoura Hills and Westlake Village saw only minor infill, or pocket development because the communities are running out of buildable open space.

Moorpark

Moorpark is still seeing significant growth following the approval of several large housing developments in recent years. The Moorpark City Council is slated to review another proposal in 2007 that could add more than 600 homes inside the city, but the overall pace of construction appears to have slowed.

About 150 new homes in Moorpark were completed in 2006.

The Pardee Homes project now under construction in the Moorpark Highlands will include singlefamily homes and several condos. The developer is building in phases and selling the homes before they are constructed. Single-family homes in the project start at $650,000.

Simi Valley

Prices also are leveling off in Simi Valley as properties stay on the market longer, said Linda Enderson, a director on the Simi ValleyMoorpark Association of Realtors. Enderson sells real estate with Century 21 Hilltop in Wood Ranch.

“It’s more like a normal market,” Enderson said–lower priced homes sell more quickly. “A couple of years ago you couldn’t find a single-family home under $500,000 but now you can.”

Still considered a frontier for new housing, Simi Valley has seen several large developments come on line, most notably the Big Sky project.

The Big Sky homes began as a hot item, but the market’s recent change of pace has lessened the demand, Enderson said.

Overall, Simi is still one of the more affordable areas in the region, she said.

Conejo Valley:

Agoura, Thousand Oaks,

Oak Park, Westlake Village

There aren’t many new big tract developments in the Conejo Valley, but the market is still being driven by supply and demand basics, said Russ Watson, housing manager for Thousand Oaks.

“Homes stay on the market a bit longer than they used to, and that causes pressure to reduce the price a little, but there is still a high demand in the Conejo Valley,” Watson said.

The inventory of homes in the Conejo Valley is low because the cities mostly have reached maximum size, but several smaller tracts still are being developed in Newbury Park.

In the Conejo Valley there are approximately 275 residential properties currently in escrow, which is a high number for the December real estate cycle, said Glen Scalise, president of the Conejo Valley Real Estate Association.

The real estate market outlook remains fairly strong for the Conejo Valley because the area remains insulated from economic peaks and valleys, Scalise said. Median sales prices in the Conejo have remained steady.

“Our great quality of life, quality schools and plentiful high paying jobs do counterbalance the higher housing costs to a degree,” said Marena Murray, a Realtor for RE/MAX Gold Coast.

Thousand Oaks, especially Newbury Park, still has high demand for housing because of large local employers such as Amgen and Countrywide Home Loans.